One of the big questions for the Orlando Magic last summer was exactly how to value Tobias Harris and how much to sign him for in free agency. As a restricted free agent, the Magic had the right to match any offer made on Harris. It was just a matter of value.
Essentially the Magic told Harris to get a max offer sheet and they would match. He did so and the Magic and Harris agreed to a four-year, $64 million deal that will pay it’s largest salaries in the first two years.
Harris all of a sudden went from 25-year-old bundle of potential that had put up good numbers on a bad team to a player paid like a superstar with all the expectations that come with it.
The Magic had a good collection of young talent that needed a star to emerge and Harris had put on the best and most consistent scoring performances. Now he had the salary of the star and the expectations to perform.
Through the first half of the season, Harris has not performed to that lofty salary.
As Joe Buckley of Orlando Magic Daily writes, Harris has not progressed with his salary:
Harris has improved each year. Taken more responsibility, taken the big shots, defended the best players. That has simply halted — at least in an obvious way.
Harris never took that next jump into all-star category that would be commensurate with his increase in salary. While his rebounds and assists have improved, his lack of scoring, or even shots taken, has knocked him out of good repute.
More is expected of him.
Harris is averaging 13.6 points per game, by far his lowest since arriving in Orlando in February 2013. His field goal percentage is about the same as it always has been at 46.3 percent. More interestingly, he is taking three fewer field goal attempts per game this year.
That is the big thing with Harris. It is not that he is playing much worse than he was last year, he is just not involved in the offense at the same level.
Harris is posting a 19.1 percent usage rate, the first time in his career he has had a usage rate lower than 20 percent. He is playing facilitator much more than scorer than at any point in his career. Interestingly, his assist rate is at a career-high 9.8 percent — and his 2.0 assists per game would be a career high for a full season.
So Harris is doing different things for the Magic other than scoring.
Where Harris has been really successful is as a slasher. He has a good sense of when to cut to the hoop and make himself available for a pass or to catch the ball and move immediately in attack while the defense is rotating. It is obviously much tougher to do this when the ball is not moving as it has not been for the Magic.
Harris is typically viewed as an isolation offensive player. The Magic run Harris on isolation plays on 7.5 percent of plays. The team score 0.80 points per possession on such plays. That is not a terrible offensive output by any means for such an inefficient play.
Harris’ decrease in output could simply be less opportunity.
But Harris too has shown improvement on the defensive end. He has a 0.5 defensive box plus-minus, according to Basketball-Reference. This means he is 0.5 points per 100 possessions better than an average player. He has also accumulated 1.7 defensive win shares already this season, nearing his career high of 1.8 set last year.
Defense has a lot to do with the team around him, but these numbers try to parse out Harris’ individual defensive contributions.
In many ways, Harris has filled in a lot of gaps for the Magic. He rebounds well — 7.0 rebounds per game although his rebounding percentage are in line with his career averages — he moves the ball and he defends decently (although he still has his limitations).
The problem is the salary demands a bit more. Especially until the Magic make those big-money decisions on some of their other players on the roster.
There are demands that come with the paycheck. It demands more than a guy who fits in and fills gaps. Harris has to do a little bit more. That seems to be the only conclusion. He has to assert himself more and find a way to get himself going.
Ultimately what matters to Harris and to the team is that the Magic win in the end. How Harris does to get that is not that important.
As the Magic have faltered and roles are examined, Harris has done a lot of good things that may not show up in the stat sheet. But it seems his salary would demand that he do more. He asked for that pressure with his salary.
With the team struggling, it is now time for one of the team’s leaders to deliver a bit more.
