The College Football Playoff is out with a new ranking and that brings changes to the Orlando bowl picture as we look at the Orlando Bowl Game Projections.
Another Tuesday means another week of the College Football Playoff Ranking. And a week closer to bowl season in Orlando.
The Citrus Bowl, Russell Athletic Bowl and Cure Bowl all got a little clearer after last week. Or not. The Michigan State loss to Nebraska changed the landscape in the College Football Playoff. And that pushed all the teams in the Big Ten down heading into the Citrus Bowl selection.
Once again, our bowl projections are based on a snapshot of the season as it exists now. It is not a projection to the end of the season (although that may play an element in selecting between teams).
Once again, we start with the College Football Playoff to set the table:
College Football Playoff
Last week, the final four Clemson, LSU, Ohio State and Alabama. LSU’s loss to Alabama ensured some change. The Fighting Irish were the beneficiaries, sneaking into the Playoff. Notre Dame lost to No. 1 Clemson early on this season.
Here is the New Year’s Six Bowl lineup…
Orange Bowl (National Semifinal): (1) Clemson vs. (4) Notre Dame
Cotton Bowl (National Semifinal): (2) Alabama vs. (3) Ohio State
Nothing here is guaranteed though. Clemson appears to have smooth sailing to the ACC Championship Game (a likely matchup with North Carolina or Pittsburgh). Notre Dame still has to play No. 7 Stanford.
Alabama climbed from No. 4 to No. 2 thanks to the win over LSU. Alabama plays at No. 17 Mississippi State this week. Ohio State still has its matchups with No. 13 Michigan State and No. 14 Michigan to come.
So Clemson is the only one that should feel very safe on paper right now.
Sugar Bowl: (6) Baylor vs. (9) LSU
Rose Bowl: (5) Iowa vs. (7) Stanford
Fiesta Bowl: (8) Oklahoma State vs. (10) Utah
Peach Bowl: (11) Florida vs. (20) Navy
There are quite a few changes from last week. Michigan State has fallen out after its loss with Iowa replacing them. The Hawkeyes would have been in the New Years’ Six anyway. But now the Spartans likely fall to … you guessed it.
Florida remains in the New Years’ Six though, preventing a nice opportunity for the Citrus Bowl. It should be noted though that Florida will take a trip to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game. So a return trip to the Peach Bowl may not be ideal.
Of course, the Gators could lose that SEC Championship Game and fall very easily to the Citrus Bowl. It seems like the Gators could get penciled in there.
But there is a lot of football to be played all over the place.
Week 2 of our best "If The Season Ended Today" guesses, including @BWWCitrusBowl and @RussellAthBowl matchups. pic.twitter.com/MrfMbq6EHp
— Florida Citrus Sports (@FCSports) November 11, 2015
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl
So on to the Citrus Bowl. Florida Citrus Sports writes Michigan State and Mississippi State are the two likely selections if the season ended today.
The Citrus Bowl, of course, has first pick of SEC and Big Ten teams after the New Years’ Six Bowl Games.
In the Big Ten, that is easy, Michigan State is the best team available. Having defeated Michigan, it would have to be the choice. Now, intrigue might exist if the Spartans lose to the Buckeyes and the Wolverines (with two losses) win out.
That might get Michigan State back into the New Years’ Six… or it might push Michigan there.
This spot is far from decided. I would still suspect the Citrus Bowl would love to have Jim Harbaugh’s first bowl game at Michigan. We had the Wolverines as the projection last week.
Texas A&M’s loss to Auburn though drops the Aggies out. Mississippi State is next up. But that is not likely to last with Alabama on the schedule next.
Other options include Mississippi and Georgia. The Bulldogs have struggled, but could bounce back and into this bowl game. The Rebels, as I noted last week, play their opening game of the 2016 season in Orlando. I would think it unlikely for them to get a selection to the Citrus Bowl this year.
Projection: (13) Michigan State vs. (17) Mississippi State
Russell Athletic Bowl
The Russell Athletic Bowl is not likely affected much in its ACC selection. The Orlando bowl still has first selection.
The picks come down to Florida State and North Carolina and, potentially Duke or Pittsburgh. But this is really no choice.
Orlando is a hot bed for Florida State fans (go downtown during a Florida State home game). And even though the Seminoles will have their spring game at the Citrus Bowl and their opening game of the 2016 season at the Citrus Bowl, this pick is too easy to make.
There is no way this bowl game passes on Florida State. Even with a loss to the Gators, the Seminoles feel like a lock unless they rise into the New Years’ Six.
Facing them will be the second pick of the Big 12. The two teams outside the New Years’ Six are Oklahoma and TCU.
My bet would be the Big 12 works it for Oklahoma to end up at the Alamo Bowl since the team went to Orlando last year. TCU was a preseason national title favorite and had a Heisman frontrunner in Travone Boykin.
It would be a very exciting matchup for this bowl game to put forward.
Projection: (16) Florida State vs. (15) TCU
AutoNation Cure Bowl
As noted last week, both the American and the Sun Belt have a very loose bowl selection order. It is really about which game fits the teams available best.
Navy is now the most favored son of the American. Considering the Birmingham Bowl and Military Bowl are against Power 5 conferences, it figures those teams might get preference in picking American teams.
So Houston goes to the Military Bowl. Memphis goes to the Birmingham Bowl. Temple will have its pick. But I doubt they choose the Cure Bowl.
That leaves the Cure Bowl and the other bowls picking from a group of teams with five wins — USF, Connecticut, Cincinnati and Tulsa. They all should get in if they reach bowl eligibility.
USF should get serious consideration for the hometown St. Petersburg Bowl. Tulsa is the team furthest west and so might go to the Hawai’i Bowl.
For now, I will project Cincinnati to reach the inaugural Cure Bowl from the AAC. Although my pick from last week of Tulsa certainly could remain in the running. This is really throwing a dart at this point. And a lot still has to sort itself out.
In the Sun Belt, there is again no bowl selection order. There are four bowl spots to fill.
There are already three bowl eligible teams in Arkansas State, Appalachian State and Georgia Southern. Geographically, Georgia Southern would be a great fit for Orlando.
Arkansas State has had far too many trips to the GoDaddy Bowl (each of the last four years!). If Cure Bowl has the last pick, Louisiana-Lafayette and South Alabama sit at 4-4 and need two more wins to get bowl eligibility.
This week, I go with Georgia Southern, with the hope South Alabama makes the Camellia Bowl in Montgomery.
Projection: Cincinnati vs. Georgia Southern
